2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for Virginia head football coach Tony Elliott. After three seasons without a bowl appearance, pressure is mounting on Elliott to deliver results and prove he is the right leader for the Cavaliers.
Elliott is entering his fourth year at the helm, and while there were signs of progress in 2024, the season’s disappointing finish has cast a shadow over the perceived gains. With no bowl game appearances to show for his tenure, the stakes are higher than ever.
In the latest CBS Sports ranking of all Power Four coaches, Elliott finds himself near the bottom. He was ranked fourth-worst among all coaches, only finishing ahead of Jeff Lebby at Mississippi State, interim head coach Frank Reich at Stanford, and Arizona’s Brent Brennan.
The CBS Sports commentary noted that Elliott has endured significant challenges at Virginia, including the tragic shooting incident during his first season. However, results on the field have not matched the program’s expectations.
Virginia finished the 2022 season with a 3-7 record, followed by a 3-9 campaign in 2023. Last season, the Cavaliers improved to 5-7, signaling some progress but still falling short of bowl eligibility.
With that in mind, 2025 feels like a “make or break” season. Many around the program believe it’s a bowl or bust situation for Elliott and his staff.
Adding to the pressure is the fact that the ACC looks wide open behind its top contenders. This could present an opportunity for Virginia to move up the conference standings—if they can find some consistency.
Since going 6-6 in 2021 and earning bowl eligibility, Virginia has not played in a postseason game. Their last actual bowl appearance was in the 2019 Orange Bowl, where they lost to Clemson after finishing the regular season 9-3.
That four-year drought from postseason play has been a source of frustration for the fan base and the athletic department. Patience is wearing thin, and another losing season could result in major changes.
Despite offseason improvements and roster movement, 247Sports recently released its early 2025 Bowl Projections—and Virginia was nowhere to be found. That omission has raised eyebrows among fans and analysts alike.
Considering how aggressive the Cavaliers have been in the transfer portal and player development, missing bowl projections is seen as a setback. It suggests that national expectations for the program remain low.
That said, there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Virginia’s projected win total for the upcoming season is set at 6.5—a reasonable target that suggests bowl eligibility is within reach.
Virginia opens the season at home against Coastal Carolina, a team not expected to contend in the Sun Belt Conference. It’s a favorable matchup that could help the Cavaliers start the year with confidence.
Week two will be especially telling. The Cavaliers travel to face NC State, a perennial ACC contender that has lost considerable talent this offseason. A win in Raleigh would signal that this Virginia team is serious about postseason play.
The rest of the schedule has its challenges, but it’s not an impossible path. If the Cavaliers can win their winnable games and steal a victory or two on the road, seven wins is a realistic goal.
Elliott’s ability to develop young talent and integrate new transfers will be tested. Depth, discipline, and execution—three things his teams have struggled with—must improve for Virginia to take the next step.
Leadership will also play a big role. The Cavaliers need veteran players to set the tone and maintain focus throughout what will undoubtedly be a pressure-filled season.
If Elliott can get his team to a bowl game, it would stabilize the program and potentially extend his tenure. However, failure to do so will raise questions about the direction of Virginia football.
At this point, Elliott’s legacy at Virginia is undefined. The 2025 season offers him a chance to write a new chapter—and it will be one the college football world watches closely.
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