The Atlanta Braves signed Jarred Kelenic, but some fans questioned the decision, especially after his poor spring training performance. However, the Atlanta Braves’ front office noticed something in him. The tools were there, with him being drafted sixth overall by the Mets in 2018, and he had some intriguing underlying metrics.
Kelenic, as we mentioned earlier this year, possesses exceptional contact skills. When he does make contact, his expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) was 457 last season, ranking him in the top ten percent of qualified hitters.
Kelenic has been outstanding with the bat this season, as of the time of writing. He is hitting 462/.517/.577. His xwOBA on contact (xwOBACON) is even higher than last year, at.465. His sweet spot percentage of 52.9 is among the top 2.0 in MLB this season, and it is significantly higher than his 38.8 percent last year.
Of course, twenty-nine plate appearances is a small sample size, but the results are encouraging. It appears that having him face a favorable platoon matchup is paying dividends, as well as any work he puts in during the off-season.
What is an area of improvement that sticks out?
There are many variables in play when a player improves, especially in small sample sizes, but there are a few areas that look good. First, his line drive rate has skyrocketed. Last season, his line drive rate jumped from 16.5 percent in 2022 to 29.8 percent. So far this season, it is sitting at 41.2 percent. His already elite, weak contact percentage in 2023 of 1.7 percent has somehow improved to 0.0 percent.
His walk rate has also improved thus far to 10.3 percent, which would be the highest of his career if the season ended today.
If we want to get even more specific, we can look and see that he has been hitting the curveball very well. He has seen the pitch twenty times this year, which equates to 16.0 percent of pitches thrown to him and is the third most seen behind the 4-seamer and changeup, respectively.
In 2023, he did not struggle per se against the curveball, with an xwOBA of.298 against it. The league average xwOBA against the pitch last season was.279. That being said, Kelenic has taken it to a new level so far this season. He is hitting 1.000 against the pitch with an xBA of.647, xSLG of.741, and xwOBA of.610.
His hard-hit percentage against the pitch so far is 100.0 percent, and his swing-and-miss percentage on the pitch is only 25.0 percent. 25.0 percent would be the lowest swing-and-miss percentage against the pitch in his career.