Alabama’s Doomsday Scenario: How One Catastrophic Twist Could Ruin Their CFP Dreams

Alabama’s Doomsday Scenario: How One Catastrophic Twist Could Ruin Their CFP Dreams

Alabama’s football team enters the College Football Playoff (CFP) championship weekend in a strong position, sitting at No. 11 in the latest CFP rankings. After a 28-14 victory over Auburn in the Iron Bowl, the Crimson Tide appears to be on track for a playoff berth. However, one major event could throw a wrench in their plans and keep them out of the 12-team playoff.

This potential scenario revolves around the upcoming ACC Championship game between SMU and Clemson. As of now, SMU is ranked No. 8 and is considered the projected ACC champion. But if Clemson pulls off an upset and defeats SMU in Charlotte on Saturday night, it could create a difficult decision for the CFP selection committee.

If Clemson wins, the committee will be forced to compare a two-loss SMU team against a three-loss Alabama team for the final at-large playoff spot. Despite Alabama’s significant victories this season, including wins over Georgia, LSU, South Carolina, and Missouri, the committee might be swayed by SMU’s strong resume, including just two losses, both to ranked teams, and a nine-game winning streak with six victories over bowl-eligible teams.

USA TODAY Sports columnist Paul Myerberg labeled a Clemson win over SMU as a “doomsday scenario” for Alabama’s CFP hopes. He pointed out that SMU has a more compelling case with fewer losses, a perfect conference record, and a stronger overall season. However, he also acknowledged that Alabama’s pedigree, combined with its impressive wins over top-tier teams, might still give them the edge.

Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt echoed Myerberg’s sentiment, predicting that Alabama would likely secure the final spot over SMU. He emphasized that while SMU has a strong case, Alabama’s dominance in the SEC, one of the nation’s toughest conferences, could give them the benefit of the doubt in a head-to-head comparison. Klatt noted that the committee has historically leaned in favor of Alabama, regardless of the number of losses, due to its track record of success and quality wins.

Ultimately, the selection committee could avoid this dilemma entirely if Saturday’s games play out as expected, with SMU defeating Clemson and Alabama holding onto the final playoff spot. However, if Clemson upsets SMU, the committee will face a tough choice between Alabama’s three losses and SMU’s two, leaving fans and analysts alike to wonder which team will secure the last coveted spot in the College Football Playoff.

As the championship weekend approaches, Alabama’s playoff fate could hinge on a single game, with the “doomsday scenario” casting a long shadow over their postseason hopes.